As a political vacuum unfolds across the EU, could Starmer’s attempts to reset relations embellish the UK’s European influence from outside the Union?
In politics, timing is everything. For Starmer, his ascendancy to the Office of Prime Minster has been no different. By inheriting the keys to Downing Street on July 5th, the Labour Leader was immediately thrust onto the international stage. First, at the NATO Summit in Washington, less than a week after taking office, shortly before hosting the European Political Community in the same month.
First proposed by French President Macron in 2022, the European Political Community (EPC) Summit is a biannual meeting of political leaders both inside and outside the EU alongside key figures within the Union such as the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. In their first meeting of 2024, the summit saw 46 European leaders, invited by Starmer to Blenheim Palace, the historic birthplace of Churchill. Discussions ranged from Ukrainian security to energy and migration.
But less than two years after the summit’s inaugural meeting, the EPC is becoming a relic of a vastly different political landscape.
Macron’s initial proposal for the EPC focused on promoting multilateral cooperation between “democratic European nations that subscribe to our shared values”. Since then, the French President’s influence abroad has been greatly diminished by politics at a domestic level.
Following Macron’s centrist coalition’s disastrous European election results against Marie Le Pen’s far-right National Front (RN), the French President called a shock snap parliamentary election. The resulting parliament has been immediately deadlocked, with three ideologically distinct blocs with no clear majority. The New Popular Front (NPF), a broad coalition of parties on the left fell short of a majority but won the most seats and therefore are expected to claim the Prime Ministerial position. However, their proposed unity candidate, Civil Servant Lucie Castets has been publicly rebuked by President Macron over her intention to reverse many of his party’s policies including the controversial increase of the retirement age. Without consensus, further deadlock, instability and uncertainty will likely ensue.
Outside of France, a similar pattern is emerging across the continent. In Germany, opinion polls show dwindling support for Chancellor Scholz and his Social Democratic party (SDP). If polls hold, next year’s election will see the Christian Democrats replace Scholz’s ‘Traffic-light coalition’ against the backdrop of an emboldened and insurgent Far-right AFD party. Macron’s vision of “our shared values” is narrowing.
Much has been made of Reeves and the Labour Party’s ‘smoked salmon offensive’ in ensuring support from the elusive figures of boardrooms and business over breakfast from opposition. Now in power, Labour’s charm offensive has turned outwards towards Europe in a more subtle bid to reset relations. Of course, for Starmer, this is not his first endeavour to do so.
Writing before the election, Tom Baldwin, author of ‘Keir Starmer: The Biography’ argued that the Labour leader “has had more real experience of working and negotiating overseas than any other opposition leader since the 1970s” noting that “as Shadow Brexit Secretary, he had travelled across Europe seeking a better deal than the one the UK got”. Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has reportedly told Labour MPs he believes “a tide is shifting” towards closer relations with Europe. Starmer’s supermajority (a rare luxury in Europe today) and the stability it provides, make Kinnock’s predicted “shift” a distinct possibility.
This shift is already noticeable in the Prime Minister’s attempts to reset Anglo-French relations. Prefacing the EPC summit, Starmer wrote an article for the French paper Le Monde. The Prime Minister discussed “his desire to deepen relations between his country and France”, focusing on the 120th anniversary of the Entente Cordiale, a series of historic agreements that act as the basis for the modern Anglo-French relationship. Echoing Macron’s rhetoric, the Prime Minister also remarked:
“It’s true, we are no longer united through the EU, but we are united by so much- as partners in the G7, allies in NATO, colleagues on the UN security council and champions of those enduring values […] in all these ways, and more, the spirit of the Entente lives on”.
The Prime Minister’s language draws a sharp contrast with many of his Conservative predecessors under which Brexit had strained relations between the UK and France. The extent of this damage was witnessed when former Prime Minister Truss claimed “the jury is out” when asked whether Macron was a “friend or foe” during her leadership campaign.
Similarly in Ireland, relations with the UK have weakened since Brexit according to former Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. In an interview with podcast hosts, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, Varadkar expressed how:
“Sometimes, Westminster doesn’t always listen to what we say in Dublin, but they do listen to what the Whitehouse has to say. […] So, if the President says something, in London they hear it. They don’t always hear it when we say it unfortunately”.
Starmer is seemingly attempting to reset relations with the Irish government too. Taoiseach Harris, Varadkar’s successor, was Starmer’s first guest at Chequers; the Prime Minister’s stately manor. Stopping briefly for a photo opportunity featuring two pints of Guinness, the two leaders discussed bilateral issues from the Good Friday Agreement to support for Ukraine. According to their joint statement, “the ties that span both countries span geography, history, family and business, politics and culture”. The two leaders also confirmed Starmer’s intention to meet the Taoiseach again in Dublin in September.
As political disillusionment spreads across Europe, and Macron’s vision of shared European values falters, Labour’s European charm offensive can depend on the party’s strong majority, in a political environment deficient in stability. Once again, for Starmer, timing is everything.